September Payroll Forecasts Diverge as Markets Split on 100,000 Jobs
Forecasts for September U.S. job growth range from 35,000 to 180,000, while Kalshi and Polymarket put roughly even odds on more than 100,000 jobs.
September payroll forecasts span a wide range ahead of Friday’s U.S. employment report, while prediction markets are assigning nearly even odds to job growth above 100,000.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the report at 8:30 a.m. ET (12:30 p.m. UTC) Friday, Oct. 2. Forecasts compiled Sept. 28 range from 35,000 to 180,000 new nonfarm jobs. One consensus estimate is 90,000, while another stands at 84,000.
Four bank forecasts fall between 50,000 and 90,000 jobs. Barclays expects the weakest result at 50,000, followed by Bank of America at 60,000. Wells Fargo and Credit Agricole each project 90,000.
Kalshi gives nearly 60% odds to payroll growth above 90,000 and about 50% odds to a result above 100,000. Polymarket also places the probability of more than 100,000 new jobs near 50%. Both platforms settle their contracts using official Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
Forecasts for the unemployment rate range from 4% to 4.2%, while one consensus estimate is 4.1%.
The August report showed 162,000 additional jobs, well above the 53,000 consensus estimate at the time. The unemployment rate was 4.1%. ADP’s measure of private-sector payrolls rose by 38,000 in August, while the official nonfarm figure also includes government employment.
Barclays chief U.S. economist Marc Giannoni expects September payrolls to increase by 50,000, with unemployment holding at 4.1%. Bank of America expects 60,000 new jobs and says the unemployment rate could reach 4.2%.
The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 25 basis points on Sept. 16, bringing its target range to 3.75% to 4%. Views on another increase at the central bank’s Oct. 27-28 meeting have diverged.
Bank of America expects a weak September payroll figure would not materially change the outlook for October. Giannoni expects the Fed could hold rates steady in October before raising them again in December.
ADP’s September private-employment report is scheduled for 8:15 a.m. ET (12:15 p.m. UTC) Wednesday, ahead of the government payrolls release.
