Analysts Cut China’s Q4 Crude Import Forecast by 400,000 Bpd

FGE NexantECA and Energy Aspects lowered their estimates for Chinese crude purchases in the final three months of the year by roughly 400,000 barrels a day as oil above $100 a barrel, costly shipping and reduced Iranian supply pressure refiners.

The revised outlook puts China’s fourth-quarter imports at 9.2 million to 9.3 million barrels per day. The lower forecast suggests that higher feedstock and shipping costs may limit additional purchases by Chinese refiners as they seek replacement barrels amid reduced Iranian supply.

China imported 37.9 million metric tons of crude in August, up 6.2% from July but down 23.4% from August 2025 levels. August imports were estimated at about 8.97 million barrels per day.

Crude imports for the first eight months of the year fell 14.6% from the same period a year earlier to 321 million metric tons. China’s annual average crude imports were 11.6 million barrels per day in 2025.

Imports averaged 8.1 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 32% below the first quarter. Flows recovered in July and August as purchases from some non-Middle Eastern suppliers increased and refined-product exports strengthened, although August volumes remained well below year-earlier levels.

September imports were expected to remain broadly near August’s level. That would leave buying below the 2025 average and reinforce the pressure on refiners facing higher crude and freight costs.

The fourth-quarter outlook will depend on how refiners balance feedstock expenses, shipping costs and the availability of replacement supplies. The current forecast points to limited near-term upside for China’s crude imports.