Iranian Oil Loadings Fall as China’s Crude Imports Rebound

Iranian crude loadings fell to an estimated 220,000 to 255,000 barrels per day in August, down from about 2 million barrels per day in March, during a U.S. naval blockade. The decline comes as China’s broader crude imports rebound and its deliveries of Iranian oil from floating storage ease.

China’s Iranian oil arrivals averaged an estimated 475,000 barrels per day in September, with no arrivals after Sept. 26. Iran had about 86 million barrels of oil at sea, including 23 million barrels inside the Gulf. A separate late-August estimate put Iranian oil afloat at 107 million barrels; the estimates cover different dates and use different methods, so they are not directly comparable.

China’s total crude imports rose to an estimated 7.84 million barrels per day in September from 7.25 million barrels per day in August. The September figure is not an official customs total, and estimates of the country’s imports vary.

The decline in Iranian supply is prompting Chinese independent refineries to seek replacement crude. Any further disruption to Strait of Hormuz shipping could widen the effects, but the possibility that Iran may disrupt traffic is an analyst’s risk assessment, not a confirmed plan.