Bitcoin Rose After Three Midterm Elections, but the Sample Is Limited

Bitcoin (BTC) rose in the 12 months following each of the three U.S. midterm elections observed since 2014, while the longer stock-market comparison covers 19 elections dating to 1950.

BTC gained 24.5% in the 12 months after the 2014 election, 44.9% after the 2018 election and 92.3% after the 2022 election. The three observations are too few to establish a reliable pattern.

The gains were not uninterrupted. Bitcoin fell 45.5% in the first month after the 2018 election.

The S&P 500 advanced in all 19 observed 12-month periods after U.S. midterm elections since 1950, with an average gain of 15.4%. The third year of a U.S. presidential term has historically been the strongest-performing year.