Flávio Bolsonaro Projection Puts Brazil Runoff Victory Odds at 85%

A projection gives Senator Flávio Bolsonaro an 85% chance of defeating President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil’s Oct. 25 presidential runoff, with Bolsonaro favored to win 52% of the vote to Lula’s 48%.

The forecast follows a first-round result in which Bolsonaro received 47% of valid votes and Lula received 45.2%. The two candidates will now compete for voters who backed other candidates or did not participate in the initial vote.

Brazil’s benchmark Ibovespa index rose above 200,000 Monday for the first time, recording its largest one-day gain in more than six years. The Brazilian real also strengthened sharply as markets responded to Bolsonaro’s first-round lead.

Lula faces a difficult path to reversing the result. He would need to secure at least 60% of the votes cast for third-party candidates, while recent losses in key southeastern states have added to the challenge. Historically, abstention costs the PT roughly 1.5 percentage points.

Lula’s campaign is expected to focus on mobilizing voters who stayed home in the first round. Bolsonaro is expected to skip several televised debates, reducing Lula’s opportunities to try to change the race’s momentum.

The runoff campaign is expected to bring frequent attacks from both camps. The projection does not anticipate a major political development that would materially alter voter preferences, although additional controversy involving Banco Master or Brazil’s Supreme Court could generate further political noise without significantly changing the race.

A Bolsonaro administration would still face governance challenges because of Brazil’s polarized electorate. The runoff vote is scheduled for Oct. 25.