Bitcoin Stalls Below $84,000 as 2025 Buyer Cohort Stays Underwater

Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $84,000 on Oct. 7 after failing to regain the approximately $88,000 volume-weighted average cost basis of the 2025 buyer cohort, leaving that group underwater on a cohort basis.

The 2025 cohort is the only yearly buyer group still underwater in the yearly cost-basis measure. The figure represents an average across the cohort and does not mean every investor who bought Bitcoin in 2025 is losing money.

Bitcoin reached a September high of approximately $87,500 before trading sideways and retreating. Its latest price remains below the level at which the 2025 cohort would reach its volume-weighted break-even point.

Bitcoin entering U.S. spot exchange-traded funds has a running average cost basis near $82,300. That measure tracks the average price of Bitcoin entering the funds on days with net positive flows; outflow days do not change the average.

Cost-basis levels show where defined groups acquired Bitcoin on average. When the market approaches those levels, investor behavior may change, but the figures do not establish that holders will sell at break-even or defend any specific price.

The gap between the 2025 cohort’s approximately $88,000 level and Bitcoin’s recent trading area provides a reference point for tracking whether the recovery can regain ground held by that group.