Bitcoin’s Rebound Faces a Spot-Demand Test Near $84,000

Bitcoin’s rebound is facing a test of spot demand after the asset fell back toward $84,000 from $87,197, with exchange-traded fund inflows weakening from the previous week.

Bitcoin (BTC) traded within a near-term range between $84,000 and $87,722. The upper boundary is the asset’s 2026 opening level. A daily close above $87,722, combined with several U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF sessions matching or exceeding September’s $340 million daily average, could open a test of $90,000.

The $84,000-$84,500 area contains about 867,000 BTC, representing 4.3% of the asset’s supply based on cost-basis analysis. Holding $84,000 could trap late short positions.

ETF demand weakened sharply between the two most recent weekly periods. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.39 billion in net inflows from Sept. 21-25, compared with $241.1 million in net inflows from Sept. 28-Oct. 2.

The daily figures for the second period included $31 million in inflows on Sept. 28, $66.2 million on Sept. 29, a $148.7 million outflow on Sept. 30, $102.7 million in inflows on Oct. 1 and $189.9 million on Oct. 2.

The next reported sessions were also mixed. ETFs recorded an $89.8 million outflow on Oct. 5 and a $118.8 million inflow on Oct. 6. The Oct. 7 table entry was listed at $0.0 million while fund entries were still incomplete, so it was not a finalized daily flow result.

Open interest rose by $2.1 billion during the 24 hours before the latest U.S. payrolls report and then fell by $1.5 billion after the release. The shift indicates that derivatives positioning changed substantially around the economic data.

The rebound has therefore relied on a market structure in which futures positioning and spot demand are not moving equally.

A move from roughly $84,000 to $100,000 would require an increase of about 19%. The available market levels currently center on holding $84,000, reclaiming $87,722 and strengthening ETF demand before any higher test.

Recent and upcoming macro events include the Federal Open Market Committee minutes scheduled for 2 p.m. ET (18:00 UTC) on Oct. 7 and the September Consumer Price Index release scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET (12:30 p.m. UTC) on Oct. 14.