S&P 500 Earnings Seen Rising 30.6% as Semiconductor Growth Slows

S&P 500 third-quarter earnings are projected to rise 30.6% year over year, with technology companies driving most of the expected increase even as semiconductor earnings growth slows from the prior quarter.

Semiconductor earnings growth is estimated at about 136% in the third quarter, down from roughly 158% in the second.

The broader S&P 500 estimate has strengthened during 2026, rising from 15.1% on Jan. 1 to 21.3% on April 1, 27.6% on July 1 and 30.6% as of Oct. 9.

The technology sector, Alphabet, Amazon.com and Meta Platforms are projected to generate about two-thirds of the benchmark’s expected earnings increase. The concentration is consistent with earlier coverage of artificial intelligence’s growing share of the S&P 500, though the available figures do not quantify AI’s contribution to total earnings.

Nineteen S&P 500 companies had reported by Oct. 9. Of those companies, 84.2% exceeded analysts’ estimates, while blended revenue growth reached 11.8%.

Company disclosures included Samsung Electronics’ preliminary third-quarter guidance, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s September revenue and Micron’s strategic customer agreements.

Samsung projected consolidated third-quarter sales of approximately 195 trillion Korean won and operating profit of approximately 107.4 trillion won. Its preliminary ranges were 194 trillion to 196 trillion won for sales and 107.3 trillion to 107.5 trillion won for operating profit, with the figures based on Korean International Financial Reporting Standards and representing range medians.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported September revenue of approximately NT$511.86 billion, up 54.6% from a year earlier and down 0.6% from August. Revenue for the first nine months of 2026 totaled NT$3,898.73 billion, up 41.1% from the same period in 2025.

Micron completed 16 strategic customer agreements generally covering five years from 2026 through 2030. The agreements represent roughly 20% of its DRAM volume and one-third of its NAND volume over that period.

S&P 500 earnings growth is projected at 28.9% in the fourth quarter of 2026 and 19.8% in the first quarter of 2027. The index and semiconductor figures are estimates, while Samsung’s figures are preliminary guidance and TSMC’s figures are reported revenue results.