Bitcoin Rebound Comes as Futures Open Interest Falls 11%

Bitcoin (BTC) gained 26% from its mid-August low after the largest single-day short-liquidation event in the data since 2019, while futures open interest fell 11% in coin terms during the squeeze window.

The Aug. 19, 2026, liquidation event was the largest one-day short liquidation recorded in the data set since 2019. Shorts made up 85% of liquidated positions across the squeeze window.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.23 billion in creations during the same period, with no outflow day. That was the strongest seven-day intake of 2026 at the time, suggesting that spot-market demand supported the advance as leveraged positioning declined.

Open interest measures futures positions that remain open. A decline in Bitcoin-denominated open interest during a price rally means the move was not matched by a comparable expansion in leveraged exposure. During the squeeze window, the dollar value of the futures book increased only because Bitcoin’s price rose.

Perpetual funding stayed near neutral during the squeeze and sometimes turned negative afterward. The pattern was consistent with traders not aggressively rebuilding long leverage. The liquidation figures cover major centralized exchanges and exclude Hyperliquid.

By late September, Bitcoin was trading near an $81,000-$86,000 resistance area containing cost-basis levels, sell orders, dealer gamma positioning and liquidation levels.

ETF flows remained positive overall in late September, including $999.0 million in net inflows on Sept. 21, 2026, $714.7 million on Sept. 22 and $346.9 million on Sept. 23. Flows became uneven in October, with net outflows of $484.9 million on Oct. 7 and $244.1 million on Oct. 8, followed by a $21.1 million inflow on Oct. 9.

The next market signal is whether spot demand and derivatives participation expand together. Rising open interest alongside higher funding would indicate that leverage is returning to the move, while continued subdued positioning would be consistent with a rally carrying less leverage.