Paid Options Alerts Trigger Price Surges That Quickly Fade

Buying surged after paid options alerts, and the recommended contracts rose sharply before most of the price impact faded within roughly two hours, a study of 15 Discord trading communities found.

Retail activity after alerts reached roughly 14.5 standard deviations above normal. The recommended options rose an average of about 3% during the first minute. After transaction costs, subscribers generally lost money even when they acted almost immediately.

“The finfluencer generally would get in at a lower price, and then the herding of their followers pushes the price up,” Brian Roseman, a finance professor at Oklahoma State University, said. “Their influence is driving the price up rather than their actual skill selecting good options.”

The median option in the study had three days until expiration, cost about $1.25 and offered approximately 30 times leverage. Followers reacted most aggressively to the riskiest trades, which tended to perform worse.

A May 2025 trade involving eBay calls illustrated the pattern. Shortly after the market opened, a Discord poster told followers to buy calls expiring two days later. The contracts rose roughly 30% within minutes. The poster celebrated the gain and said he had already taken a quick profit. Those gains subsequently dissipated.

Researchers also found increased activity in some contracts before alerts appeared. They could not determine whether anyone knew about the recommendations in advance or whether influencers were selecting options that were already moving.

The clearer pattern came afterward, when buying surged after alerts and selling increased after followers were told to exit.

Russell Jame, a finance professor at the University of Kentucky, described the activity as closer to gambling than investing. Occasional options that doubled or tripled could provide promotional material even when subscribers lost money on average.