BMI Expects Brent Crude to Stay Above $100 for Several Months

BMI expects Brent crude to remain above $100 per barrel for several months as unresolved U.S.-Iran tensions continue to support oil prices, contrasting with the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s lower-price outlook.

Brent crude closed at $104.68 per barrel on Oct. 12, 2026, after trading near $104 during Asian hours. The benchmark has remained above $100 following earlier coverage of Brent’s move above the threshold.

BMI Chief Economist Cedric Chehab said the firm expects a possible U.S.-Iran agreement by the end of the first quarter of 2027. He indicated that economic pressure would need time to build on both sides, meaning an agreement could take several months.

BMI’s outlook implies that elevated oil prices could continue affecting inflation expectations and monetary policy. Chehab also said pressure on the U.S. economy has begun to intensify.

The forecast contrasts with the EIA’s July projections, which put average Brent prices at $74 per barrel in the third quarter of 2026 and $65 per barrel in 2027.

The EIA’s projections depend on global oil production and trade flows moving close to pre-conflict levels by the end of 2026. Most shut-in production is expected to be restored by the first quarter of 2027, while increased shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would add to available supply.

The two outlooks differ mainly in their assumptions about the duration of U.S.-Iran tensions, the recovery of disrupted production and the normalization of oil transportation routes. BMI expects political and economic pressure to remain significant in the coming months, while the EIA anticipates broader supply recovery through 2027.