U.S. September CPI Forecast Shows Core Inflation Easing

U.S. inflation is expected to show slower core-price growth in September, while rising energy costs push the headline Consumer Price Index higher and keep annual inflation near 3.7%.

The median forecast calls for headline CPI to increase 0.58% from August and 3.64% from a year earlier. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is projected to rise 0.21% month over month and 2.40% annually.

The monthly core CPI estimate would be below August’s 0.29% increase. The median forecast for core personal consumption expenditures inflation is also 0.21% for the month.

Among the institutional projections, Deutsche Bank has the lowest estimate for monthly core CPI at 0.16%. Morgan Stanley has the highest forecast for monthly headline CPI at 0.62%.

The projections point to slower core inflation alongside continued pressure from energy prices. The September CPI release will provide the official reading.