ARK Invest Keeps Bitcoin (BTC) Outlook Intact as Stablecoins Gain Ground

ARK Invest kept its long-term Bitcoin (BTC) outlook broadly intact while revising how the cryptocurrency could gain adoption as stablecoins expand in emerging markets.

The firm’s 2030 forecast calls for the digital-asset market to reach approximately $28 trillion, growing at an annualized rate of about 61%. Bitcoin is projected to account for roughly 70% of that market, with its market capitalization rising from nearly $2 trillion to approximately $16 trillion. That estimate broadly corresponds to an approximate $1 million Bitcoin price, but the forecast does not state a single price target.

ARK raised its estimated addressable market for Bitcoin as “digital gold” by 37% after gold’s market capitalization increased 64.5% in 2025. At the same time, it reduced its projected emerging-market safe-haven penetration rate by 80% as stablecoins gain traction in developing nations.

“Our targets remain relatively the same, but our assumptions changed a little bit,” said David Puell, research trading analyst and associate portfolio manager for digital assets at ARK Investment Management LLC.

Puell said stablecoins are expected to capture the largest share of emerging-market monetary use cases, leaving Bitcoin with a smaller portion of those allocations.

The revised assumptions extend ARK Invest’s five-year Bitcoin thesis, which separates Bitcoin’s store-of-value role from the growth of smart-contract platforms. ARK describes Bitcoin as evolving into a global store of value as institutional ownership grows.

The firm expects smart-contract platforms, including Ethereum, Solana and other networks, to reach approximately $6 trillion in combined market capitalization by 2030. Those platforms are also projected to generate about $192 billion in annualized revenue at an average 0.75% take rate.

The forecast places Bitcoin as the dominant asset in the digital-asset market while assigning much of the remaining market to smart-contract networks. ARK’s figures are projections based on revised assumptions rather than guarantees.