OPEC Raises 2027 Oil-Demand Growth Forecast to 2.6 Million Bpd

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) raised its forecast for global oil-demand growth in 2027 to about 2.6 million barrels per day, pointing to stronger consumption and inventory rebuilding after major drawdowns tied to the conflict involving Iran.

Global oil demand is expected to average about 108.3 million barrels per day next year, up from approximately 105.7 million barrels per day in 2026. OPEC’s detailed tables put the increase at about 2.56 million barrels per day, which rounds to 2.6 million barrels per day.

The forecast compares with expected demand growth of roughly 200,000 barrels per day in 2026. The increase projected for 2027 is partly linked to expectations that inventories will be rebuilt after unusually large stock drawdowns.

Demand growth is expected to come mainly from outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Non-OECD consumption is projected to increase by approximately 2 million barrels per day, while OECD demand is forecast to rise by about 500,000 barrels per day after declining by roughly 200,000 barrels per day in 2026.

Diesel demand is expected to increase by approximately 420,000 barrels per day in 2027 after falling by about 190,000 barrels per day this year.

The stronger demand outlook would increase the call on crude from countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Demand for DoC crude is forecast to rise from 42.1 million barrels per day in 2026 to 43.9 million barrels per day in 2027, an increase of about 1.8 million barrels per day.

Supply outside the DoC group is expected to grow by approximately 600,000 barrels per day next year. DoC natural-gas liquids and other nonconventional supply are projected to add roughly 100,000 barrels per day.

OECD commercial inventories stood 177.2 million barrels below their 2015-19 average in August. Product inventories were 80.4 million barrels below the same benchmark.

The International Energy Agency’s September 2026 outlook also projects oil-demand growth of 2.6 million barrels per day in 2027. Its 2026 estimate differs sharply from OPEC’s, with the IEA forecasting a decline of 2.5 million barrels per day while OPEC expects modest growth.