Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is over as market enters supercycle, strategist says

Bitcoin may be moving beyond its traditional halving-driven rallies and into a generational supercycle as cryptocurrency becomes part of mainstream finance and the market structure around it changes.

In an Oct. 14 interview with Bitcoin Magazine, Wellington-Altus chief market strategist James Thorne said Bitcoin’s four-year and halving cycles were over in his view, citing fundamental changes in the markets surrounding Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Thorne compared the shift with the commodity supercycle that followed China’s entry into the World Trade Organization and subsequent urbanization. Commodities themselves did not change, he said, but the structure of their market did, producing a supercycle. He sees a similar transition underway in Bitcoin and Ethereum.

The GENIUS Act, stablecoins and tokenization are key forces behind that change. As the global financial system moves on-chain, Bitcoin and Ethereum are becoming established assets, broadening cryptocurrency ownership beyond libertarian investors and into mainstream portfolio strategies.

At the beginning of the earlier commodity supercycle, few investors held commodities. Capital began flowing into the sector as research showed that allocating 2% to 5% of a portfolio to commodities could improve the Sharpe ratio and risk-adjusted returns. Thorne said the same pattern is emerging in Bitcoin, adding that the market remains early in the process.

Bitcoin also differs from conventional assets because rising prices do not trigger a supply response, leaving it with what Thorne described as perfect scarcity. While the ultimate price implications are uncertain, he said the structural change in the market is clear.

Bitcoin has recently traded between $83,000 and $86,000, though Thorne said its technical setup looks strong. He expects a break above that range to drive a rapid move higher, with price gains potentially shaping a new investment narrative and drawing greater participation from Wall Street.

Thorne also pointed to Wall Street’s tendency to concentrate capital in selected companies and assets. He compared the current shift with Google’s initial public offering, when several search engines competed but Wall Street ultimately coalesced around Google. A similar concentration of institutional interest is now developing around Bitcoin and Ethereum, he said.