Bitcoin’s Repeated Tests Near $81,000 Show Realized Losses Below Oct. 9 Peak

Bitcoin (BTC) has tested support near $81,000 three times since Oct. 9, and crypto analyst Murphy says the realized-loss pattern points to selective selling rather than broad panic.

Entity-adjusted realized losses were lower on Oct. 12 than on Oct. 9. They rose on Oct. 15 from the Oct. 12 reading but remained below the Oct. 9 level, a pattern Murphy interpreted as short-term, price-sensitive holders leaving in stages.

The latest downturn came as U.S. inflation ran hotter than expected, concern grew that the Federal Reserve could tighten policy further, and U.S. stocks weakened. Murphy said those pressures on risk assets prompted another round of stop-loss selling by holders who were still uncertain about staying in the market.

Murphy said the share of short-term holders in loss was about 31%; if it remains near that level, below the 42.7% historical average, selling may not be fully exhausted. He said easing realized losses while BTC holds near support would point to fewer forced sellers and a pullback that could be nearing its end. A sharp renewed rise in realized losses would suggest more position turnover.