Bitcoin echoes 2022 bottom, with $71,000 in play if $80,000 breaks

Bitcoin’s current pattern resembles the late-2022 setup that preceded its last bull run more closely than the market conditions before the dot-com crash, although a break below $80,000 could trigger a drop toward $71,000-$72,000.

Bitcoin analyst Joe Consorti said in an Oct. 15 video that the cryptocurrency’s price action and the broader macroeconomic backdrop suggest “there is a real chance this bull market has already begun.”

September consumer prices rose 3.7%, above the 3.6% forecast, while core inflation reached 2.6%, versus expectations of 2.5%. Inflation has now remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for 67 consecutive months, and the probability of another rate increase at the Fed’s Oct. 27-28 meeting climbed to 35%.

Energy was the main source of the latest inflation pressure. Gasoline prices jumped 9.1% in September and accounted for roughly half of the monthly increase, while rent rose just 0.2%. Consorti argued that higher interest rates cannot directly reduce gasoline prices, limiting monetary tightening’s effectiveness against an energy-driven shock.

The downturn in AI-related stocks presents another near-term risk. The largest AI spenders now account for about 10% of global investment-grade bond issuance, up from less than 1% in 2024. Deals signed since 2023 involve roughly $300 billion in equity, $650 billion in debt and $1.4 trillion in revenue commitments that have not yet been earned. If that revenue is delayed or falls short, stress could spread from technology shares into credit and bond markets, prompting investors seeking cash to sell Bitcoin as well.

Consorti said Bitcoin’s market structure nevertheless looks more like late 2022 than 1999. Above-forecast inflation, repeated Fed rate increases, steep technology-stock losses and a strong dollar were also present in 2022. Bitcoin’s current price pattern and its late-2022 trajectory have shown about a 94% daily correlation.

Bitcoin fell to about $15,500 after FTX collapsed in November 2022, establishing a bottom while negative developments were still unfolding. It then more than doubled over the following 12 months, showing that an uptrend can begin before the broader environment visibly improves.

Bitcoin’s June low near $58,000, roughly 53% below its all-time high, provides another basis for the bullish interpretation. Consorti said the asset has moved higher since then as buying resumed and whale holdings increased.

Further short-term weakness remains possible. Consorti said that if 2022 serves as the market’s roadmap, another sharp sell-off could occur. He identified $80,000 as the key support level; a break could send Bitcoin toward $71,000-$72,000, near the average cost basis of recent buyers and its momentum trend. A fall below the June low near $58,000 would invalidate the comparison.

This article is based on market data and chart analysis and does not constitute investment advice.