Nebius Is the Only Strong Buy in 12-Stock Neocloud Screen

A 12-stock screen gave Nebius Group the only Strong Buy rating, while 11 peers landed at Hold or worse as Gartner warned of mounting risks to AI infrastructure spending.

The Oct. 15 snapshot scored Nebius (NBIS) at 4.90 on a 1-to-5 scale. Seven stocks received Hold ratings: DigitalOcean (DOCN) at 3.45, Galaxy Digital (GLXY) at 3.07, Hut 8 (HUT) at 2.83, CoreWeave (CRWV) at 2.78, Applied Digital (APLD) at 2.73, IREN (IREN) at 2.71 and Core Scientific (CORZ) at 2.68.

Bitdeer Technologies (BTDR), with a score of 1.79, and CleanSpark (CLSK), at 1.55, were rated Sell. TeraWulf (WULF) scored 1.36 and Cipher Digital (CIFR) scored 1.22, both Strong Sell. The screen covered a selected group of stocks, not every neocloud provider.

The quantitative scores assess value, growth, profitability, earnings-per-share revisions and momentum. They are separate from Wall Street analyst consensus.

Gartner's Oct. 14 forecast estimates AI providers will spend nearly $1 trillion on infrastructure in 2026, then another $6 trillion from 2027 through 2030. It puts more than $3.5 trillion of that spending in potential impairment exposure by the end of 2030 if providers keep investing at today's pace.

Data-center owners would need $8.5 trillion in revenue through 2030 to cover announced capital spending and financing costs while earning a 12% return on invested capital. Gartner forecasts no more than $3.6 trillion in revenue attributable to AI data centers. “Enterprise and consumer AI revenue will be insufficient to support profitable returns,” said Will Sommer, Gartner senior director analyst.

A separate Gartner estimate puts more than $4 trillion in asset value at risk of write-down through 2032, with a 12% return on invested capital not expected before the end of that year at the earliest. The forecast also says more than 80% of neocloud providers could cease independent operations by 2030 amid cost pressure and limited business differentiation. Gartner projects spending on AI-optimized infrastructure-as-a-service will rise from $66 billion in 2027 to $174 billion in 2030.