U.S. Inflation Accelerates as Fed Minutes Point to Possible Year-End Hike

U.S. consumer inflation picked up in September to 3.7% over 12 months, while Federal Reserve meeting participants viewed another year-end increase as likely, adding rate-risk context for crypto investors.

The Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers rose 0.6% from August after seasonal adjustment. Its annual increase was up from 3.4% through August. Core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy, increased 0.3% from August and 2.6% over the 12 months through September, compared with 2.4% through August.

The monthly CPI figures compare September with August, while the annual rates compare with the same month in 2025. Core CPI excludes food and energy, giving a separate view from the all-items index.

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 1.3% in September and 6.3% over the 12 months through September. That monthly gain was the largest since March 2022 and exceeded increases of 0.5% in August and 0.2% in July.

Final-demand energy prices gained 10.8%, and gasoline prices rose 20.3%. Prices for final-demand goods advanced 2.6%, while services prices rose 0.8%. A measure excluding foods, energy and trade services increased 0.5% for the month and 5.0% over 12 months.

The CPI figures were released Oct. 14, and the producer-price report followed Oct. 15. Both came after the Fed’s Sept. 16 rate decision; the meeting minutes were released Oct. 7.

The Fed raised its target range by 25 basis points on Sept. 16, setting it at 3.75% to 4%. The change took effect Sept. 17. At that meeting, most participants saw another increase as likely before year-end, while future decisions would hinge on incoming information.

That rate outlook may matter to crypto risk appetite. Higher borrowing costs and stronger returns on interest-bearing investments can make speculative assets less attractive. The inflation data and meeting record do not establish what caused any particular crypto-market move.

The next FOMC meeting is set for Oct. 27–28.