MSCI Rule Puts Strategy at Risk, but $2.8B Estimate Is From an Earlier Proposal

MSCI’s new index screen has put Strategy’s place in global stock benchmarks at risk, but the widely cited $2.8 billion outflow estimate belongs to an earlier proposal and does not measure the rule adopted Oct. 15.

The new policy targets companies MSCI classifies as non-operating. It first checks for substantial operating assets, then applies five financial ratios to firms that fail that test. A company must trigger at least four ratios to be ineligible; existing index members must fail in both of their two latest annual filing periods before removal.

MSCI plans to publish a list of potentially affected constituents Nov. 11, with changes taking effect after the close Nov. 30. A simulation based on May 2026 data identified Strategy, Metaplanet and Yellow Cake as possible deletions from the ACWI IMI, but that exercise was not a final removal decision.

JPMorgan’s $2.8 billion estimate of possible outflows was tied to MSCI’s 2025 proposal, which focused on companies holding digital assets equal to at least half their total assets. MSCI has not issued a new outflow estimate for the adopted screen. Strategy held 848,250 Bitcoin (BTC) as of Oct. 11.