Fidelity Global Macro Director Maps Bitcoin’s Conditional $300,000 Path to 2029

Bitcoin could reach about $300,000 by 2029 in a conditional scenario from Fidelity Investments Director of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer, whose market outlook ties a new cyclical bull-market call to Bitcoin holding near $60,000.

His longer-range framework compares successive Bitcoin price waves by their size and duration. Timmer measured the 2022–2025 wave at 145 weeks, with a 105% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). For a hypothetical next wave, he used a slower annual growth rate of 60% to 65%, compared with 100% to 105% for the prior wave. That scenario could put Bitcoin near $300,000 in 2029 if a new growth wave emerged after a market winter.

Those conditions come from separate parts of the outlook. The Sept. 26, 2026, bull-market call tied the $300,000 target to Bitcoin holding the $60,000 area. The Dec. 9, 2025, growth-wave scenario instead made a new wave after a market winter the condition for its slower-growth calculation; it did not identify the $60,000 hold as a trigger for that scenario. Timmer did not give a probability for reaching $300,000.

His framework also reflects a change in the historical pattern he described: Bitcoin’s waves had become smaller in magnitude but longer in duration, while its adoption and network curve was flattening. The slower 60% to 65% assumption fits a model of diminishing growth rates across cycles. Timmer cautioned, “Take this all with a grain of salt, but there is a pattern here that could repeat.”

Timmer’s separate technical setup tied a move above $80,000 resistance to a $100,000 target; he later said Bitcoin had cleared that level. The target belongs to his double-bottom setup and is not a required waypoint in the 2029 scenario.

The projection reflects an individual contributor’s views, which may change and do not necessarily represent Fidelity’s views.