McGlone Ties Bitcoin’s $10,000 Support to 20% U.S. Stock-Market Drop

Two sharply different Bitcoin (BTC) downside estimates surfaced Oct. 16: strategist Mike McGlone tied possible support near $10,000 to a 20% U.S. stock-market decline, while CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju put an on-chain floor near $30,000.

McGlone made the $10,000 level conditional on the stock decline. He also pointed to Bitcoin’s falling 50-week moving average, comparing its pattern with 2022-23. In separate comments, he argued that a U.S. five-year Treasury yield near 5% could compete with Bitcoin and gold because neither generates income.

Ju cited $58 billion in ETF inflows and 1.3 million BTC held by treasury companies. He argued that on-chain cost basis still placed a floor near $30,000 even if those holdings were sold. Ju also estimated that BTC at $10,000 would have an MVRV ratio of 0.2, compared with 0.6 at what he described as the asset’s worst historical bottom.

MVRV compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization with its realized capitalization, which values coins at the price of their last on-chain transaction.

Readings below 1 can signal a possible market bottom, but they do not establish a guaranteed price level.

McGlone’s scenario hinges on a broad equity-market decline; Ju’s rests on fund flows, company holdings and on-chain valuation.