Bitcoin’s $10,000 Scenario Would Near Its Worst Historical Drawdown

Bitcoin at $10,000 would represent an estimated 92% decline from its previous record high, putting the hypothetical price near the steepest losses in its historical drawdown series.

Crypto analyst Darkfost calculated that price as an 87% drop from the reference level in his analysis. His historical series lists a 92.9% drawdown in 2011, compared with 82.5% in 2015, 82.6% in 2019, 74.4% in 2022 and 54.2% in 2026. On that comparison, the $10,000 scenario would approach the 2011 decline and exceed the later drawdowns.

Strategist Mike McGlone tied the level to a roughly 20% decline in the S&P 500 that lasts for a while. “Bitcoin may be tracking toward its enduring pivot around $10,000, and one simple factor could get it there,” McGlone wrote.

Darkfost compared two equity-market corrections: an approximately 19.53% S&P 500 decline in 2018 alongside an 80% Bitcoin drop, and a greater-than-19% correction in April 2025 while Bitcoin fell about 22%.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $82.39 million in net outflows on Oct. 16, covered in an earlier ETF flow report. Cumulative net inflows were $56.88 billion, and total net assets were $104.29 billion. The ETF outflow is separate from McGlone’s conditional stock-market scenario and does not establish that Bitcoin is headed for $10,000.