Bitcoin’s $150,000 Scenario Was Framed for 2026, Not 2027

The $150,000 scenario for Bitcoin (BTC) belongs to a 2026 outlook, while current market levels put overhead supply near $88,000 and a support test near $80,000.

The outlook, published Dec. 8, 2025, placed Bitcoin above $150,000 in a soft-landing and productivity-growth scenario. Its stable-growth case ranged from $110,000 to $140,000. The $150,000 scenario was framed for 2026, not 2027.

Market levels published Oct. 14 put the cost basis for coins bought six to 12 months earlier near $88,000. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF cost basis was about $81,500, while the largest Binance order-book bids were near $80,000. The True Market Mean, the average cost basis of active investors, was around $78,000.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $261.4 million in net outflows on Oct. 14, followed by $5.1 million in net inflows on Oct. 15 and $82.4 million in net outflows on Oct. 16.

A daily close above $88,000 alongside renewed ETF inflows would suggest buyers are meeting selling pressure. A decline below $80,000 would make the roughly $78,000 active-investor cost basis a nearer reference point. These levels describe the near-term market setup and do not establish a $150,000 target for 2027.