Dalio Sees U.S. Net Debt Supply Reaching $4.4 Trillion in 2027

Ray Dalio expects annual net U.S. debt supply to reach about $4.4 trillion in 2027, as artificial intelligence investment adds to borrowing demands in a market already absorbing heavy Treasury issuance.

The projection excludes maturing debt that must be refinanced. Dalio puts annual net debt supply at about $3.5 trillion in 2025. The estimate does not include bonds reissued to replace debt coming due.

Hyperscalers issued about $220 billion in bonds during the first half of 2026, more than twice the $108 billion issued during all of 2025. The half-year total shows how quickly borrowing for AI expansion has grown compared with the prior year's full-year issuance.

Dalio linked higher AI capital spending funded through borrowing and equity issuance with declining free cash flow. He described the drop as the “classic first stage of a squeeze.”

Hyperscalers now account for 10% of global investment-grade bond issuance, compared with less than 1% in 2024. Their share puts AI infrastructure companies among a larger portion of the market that investors must absorb as issuers seek financing.

Supplier financing is also growing. Broadcom agreed to lend Anthropic up to $42 billion to buy its chips.

If investors demand higher yields to absorb the combined supply, government and corporate borrowers would face higher borrowing costs. Dalio's forecast extends his earlier warning about Treasury supply and the U.S. debt burden, which focused on rising yields and borrowing costs.