Solana Trades Near $105 as Market Pricing Favors a Drop to $100

Solana (SOL) traded near $105 on Oct. 18 as market pricing favored a move to $100 or lower by month-end. The implied probability for that threshold was 82%, while the chance of reaching $190 by Oct. 31 was 1%.

Solana’s market capitalization stood near $60 billion, leaving SOL about 65% below its January 2025 peak. The network handles thousands of transactions each second. Trading in tokenized stocks on Solana exceeded $4.4 billion in September, setting a record. Raydium and Orca contributed to activity across the network’s decentralized exchanges, highlighted in September’s record tokenized-stock trading.

These figures describe network throughput and trading activity, but do not establish how much recurring fee or application revenue accrues to SOL. That distinction was also raised in an earlier Solana valuation analysis.

The Alpenglow update, regulatory developments and broader crypto-market conditions are among the factors to watch. A rollout without significant outages and favorable regulatory developments could support the network-growth case, while major outages or negative regulatory action could weigh on it.