China-Attributed Treasury Holdings Fall as Canada’s Position Climbs

Holdings attributed to China declined to $590.7 billion at the end of August, while Canada’s total reached $464.6 billion, underscoring the limits of country-level custody data.

The figures, released Oct. 16, measure securities held at month-end Aug. 31. Holdings attributed to China were $590.729 billion at Aug. 31, down from $618.011 billion in July and $699.698 billion at the end of August 2025. The amount was below July’s $618.011 billion and the $699.698 billion recorded a year earlier.

Canada’s $464.585 billion total was up from $169.194 billion at the end of August 2021, a roughly 2.75-fold increase. At August’s end, the total included $428.641 billion in long-term Treasuries and $35.944 billion in short-term Treasuries. Those precise amounts sum to $464.585 billion; separately rounded figures may not add to the rounded $464.6 billion headline total.

Canada also had $168.598 billion in U.S. agency bonds, a separate category from Treasury securities. That amount is not part of the $464.585 billion Treasury total. Keeping the categories separate matters because estimates of China’s broader holdings can include agency bonds, while the country comparison here concerns Treasuries.

Country totals rely mainly on records from U.S.-based custodians and broker-dealers. When securities are held through custody accounts in other countries, the records may not show the ultimate owner. The figures therefore identify holdings assigned to a country in the reporting system, but do not establish that an entity in that country owns every security counted there.

Brad Setser, a senior fellow and former Treasury official, said the China figure cannot be assessed from its country line alone: “China’s true holdings of U.S. bonds cannot be assessed by just looking at the ‘China’ line in the TIC data.”

Setser’s separate estimates concern Chinese holdings of agency bonds, not confirmed Treasury holdings booked to Canada. His analysis put adjusted agency holdings around $300 billion under a narrower approach and as high as $500 billion in an upper-end estimate, while describing the calculation as uncertain. Those estimates do not identify the owners of the securities in Canada’s Treasury total.