Bitcoin MVRV Reading Falls Below 30th Percentile as ETF Outflows Top $936 Million

Bitcoin’s (BTC) MVRV percentile reading fell below the 30th percentile, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $936.3 million in net outflows across sessions from Oct. 7-16.

Crypto analyst Darkfost put the reading at 25.7% in an Oct. 18 post and characterized Bitcoin’s move near $87,000 as a rejection.

MVRV contrasts Bitcoin’s overall market value with a realized-value measure built from the price at which each coin last changed hands on-chain. The 25.7% figure is a historical percentile ranking in Darkfost’s framework, which accounts for the metric’s evolution across market cycles. It is not the raw MVRV ratio or a 25.7% discount to holders’ cost basis. The percentile describes where the metric sits relative to its historical range; on its own, it does not identify a market bottom. MVRV has also featured in earlier on-chain resistance analysis.

Darkfost saw the reading as a possible move from heavy selling toward accumulation, while placing it above the deeply undervalued levels seen near past lows. That characterization does not establish that accumulation is underway.

ETF flows shifted across the periods measured. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.66 billion in net inflows across trading sessions from Sept. 21 through Oct. 6, then $936.3 million in net outflows across sessions from Oct. 7 through Oct. 16. Over the latest five sessions in that span, Oct. 12-16, net outflows totaled $228.4 million. That total included a $175.7 million inflow on Oct. 13 and a $261.4 million outflow on Oct. 14; the full period’s net outflow does not mean every session posted an outflow.

Long-term-holder measures add context without showing a change in balances. Realized losses among long-term holders were about 85% below their Aug. 12 peak as of Oct. 13. Data through Oct. 13 also showed coins spent by holders in profit outnumbering coins spent at a loss by about four to one. Those figures track realized losses and spending patterns, but do not establish whether long-term-holder supply rose or fell.

The MVRV percentile, ETF net flows and holder spending describe different parts of market activity. Together, they provide valuation and flow context, but none confirms that a market bottom or a net accumulation phase has begun.