Nasdaq-100 Falls 5.49% as 10-Year Treasury Yield Declines

The Nasdaq-100 lost 5.49% between Oct. 9 and Oct. 16 as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 15 basis points, showing that bond prices can rise during a stock decline.

The index closed at 30,883.15 on Oct. 9 and 29,187.55 on Oct. 16, a loss of 1,695.60 points. Both closes were at 4 p.m. ET (20:00 UTC). The 10-year Treasury par yield moved from 5.24% to 5.09% across the same dates.

The 5.49% drop uses the Oct. 9 close as its starting point. Measuring from the Oct. 12 close through Oct. 16 would produce a smaller decline. The dates matter when comparing accounts of the week's market move.

Lower market yields generally raise the value of existing bonds. The yield change does not establish a bond fund's total return, which also depends on the maturities it holds and the interest it receives.

The cause of a stock selloff can change how bonds respond. Concern about weaker growth can pull interest rate expectations and Treasury yields lower. Inflation pressure can instead lift yields, reducing existing bonds' market value while stocks also decline.

Inflation remains part of that backdrop. U.S. consumer prices rose 3.7% in the 12 months through September, while the measure excluding food and energy rose 2.6%. The Federal Reserve raised its target rate range by 25 basis points on Sept. 16, to 3.75%–4.00%.

The longer record shows a shift in how the markets moved together. From 2000 through 2021, daily S&P 500 returns had a 0.4 correlation with daily changes in the 10-year Treasury yield. For 2022 through July 2026, the correlation was -0.09.

Yields and bond prices generally move in opposite directions. The earlier positive correlation meant stock declines tended to coincide with lower yields and higher bond prices; the later reading points to a weaker tendency for bonds to offset falling stocks. Neither period establishes how Treasuries will perform in the next equity decline.