Bitcoin Capital Inflows Rise as U.S. Spot ETF Outflows Continue

Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $82,000 on Oct. 19 as on-chain indicators of incoming capital strengthened, even while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $230 million and exchange selling continued.

Monthly realized-cap growth reached 1.3%, compared with 1.2% a week earlier. Hot capital, a measure of short-term, price-sensitive money, accounted for 20.3% and remained above its usual upper range. The ratio of short-term to long-term holder supply also rose to 14.7% from 14.5%, pointing to a larger role for newer holders.

Those readings indicate that capital was entering Bitcoin on-chain. They sit alongside weaker demand through U.S. funds and spot exchanges, which measure different parts of the market. The holder shift alone does not explain away the rise in realized capitalization.

In the week through Oct. 18, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had $230 million in net outflows, compared with $674.9 million the previous week. Weekly ETF trading volume fell 3.2% to $10.1 billion. Withdrawals slowed, but the funds still ended the week with more money leaving than entering.

Spot trades continued to favor sellers. Net selling by traders taking available exchange prices widened to $83.6 million from $67 million a week earlier, while total spot volume rose 2.1% to $5.5 billion. Trading activity held up, but the increase in volume did not bring a switch to buyer-led orders.

Bitcoin was about 2% lower over the week covered by the market readings. A dip during that period stopped just above $80,000 before the price returned to the vicinity of $82,000 on Oct. 19.

Selling in perpetual futures eased but remained dominant, with net taker flow at negative $562.7 million, compared with negative $891.1 million a week earlier. Options traders paid more for downside protection: the 25-delta skew rose to 8.6% from 5.2%.

Network activity softened even as the capital measures remained elevated. Transaction fees fell 10.1% to $202,700, and entity-adjusted transfer volume declined 10.6% to $4.6 billion. Daily active addresses edged up 0.5% to 635,800.

The share of Bitcoin supply held at a profit slipped to 68.2% from 70.1% over the week. The ratio of realized profits to realized losses also fell, reaching 0.4 after standing at 0.8 a week earlier.