2027 AI Spending Swing Could Shift S&P 500 Earnings Growth 6 Percentage Points

A $250 billion difference from the 2027 spending forecast for major U.S. hyperscalers would shift S&P 500 earnings growth by roughly 6 percentage points, showing how closely index profits are tied to AI investment.

The forecast puts their capital spending at $1.2 trillion in 2027. Spending above that level would raise estimated earnings growth; spending below it would lower growth. The 6-percentage-point figure describes the sensitivity of earnings growth, not a projected move in the S&P 500’s share prices.

The largest U.S. hyperscalers are projected to spend $800 billion in 2026, up 94% from 2025, and $1.4 trillion in 2028. AI investment is tied to nearly half of the index’s earnings-per-share growth in 2026. The 2027 sensitivity adds a measure of how a change in that spending could affect the wider market’s profits.

Spending on chips, equipment and infrastructure generates revenue for suppliers when purchases are made. Hyperscalers then record depreciation on the equipment over time. Those charges can keep rising after the pace of new spending slows, reducing the earnings lift from additional investment.

The forecasts therefore distinguish slower growth in spending from a decline in the amount spent. Total annual capital expenditures are projected to rise through 2028, but the direct contribution from AI investment is expected to fade and become a marginal drag on S&P 500 earnings growth that year. Productivity gains from AI are expected to become more significant.

S&P 500 earnings per share are projected to grow about 11% in both 2027 and 2028. Ben Snider, chief U.S. equity strategist, said, “Our base case is for S&P 500 earnings growth to decelerate, not collapse, in coming years.”

The forecast builds on earlier coverage of AI’s contribution to S&P 500 earnings. It places a number on the earnings effect of a spending surprise while showing why rising investment alone may provide a smaller boost in later years.