Gold Held Up Better Than Bitcoin in Two U.S. Stock Selloffs

Bitcoin (BTC) gained more than gold after a 2018 U.S. stock market trough, but its much steeper losses in two selected selloffs show the assets have played different portfolio roles.

From Dec. 28, 2021, to Oct. 14, 2022, U.S. equities fell 24.18% and Bitcoin dropped 59.87%. Gold lost 8.95%. In a second selloff, from Feb. 3 to April 8, 2025, equities declined 16.66% and Bitcoin fell 24.39%, while gold gained 5.97%.

Gold held up better than stocks and Bitcoin in both periods, though it did not rise in both. Bitcoin’s deeper declines also meant that its stronger returns in a recovery followed a larger loss. In the year after the 2018 market trough, Bitcoin gained 78.99%, compared with 39.89% for equities and 18.14% for gold. Those figures describe selected downturns and a completed recovery period, rather than continuous portfolio returns.

The relationship between Bitcoin and gold also changes with the measurement window. Their correlation using monthly returns was 0.10 from Jan. 1, 2022, through March 31, 2026. A separate rolling 90-day measure reached its highest level since 2020 as of Aug. 31, 2026. The readings cover different periods and cannot be compared directly.

A subsequent decline in their 90-day correlation accompanied diverging returns. “During moments in the market when macro is off the front page, bitcoin and gold can perform very differently,” said André Dragosch, Bitwise’s director and head of research for Europe.

The difference in price swings matters for portfolio size. Bitcoin’s annualized realized volatility was 40% for the 12 months through June 30, 2026, compared with 26% for gold. The measure describes how much prices moved over that period, regardless of direction.

A hypothetical U.S. portfolio test from May 31, 2016, through May 29, 2026, started with 60% stocks and 40% bonds. Its Sharpe ratio was 0.81. Shifting 1% from stocks to Bitcoin produced a 59% stock, 40% bond and 1% Bitcoin allocation with a Sharpe ratio of 0.90. Shifting 2% from stocks produced a 58% stock, 40% bond and 2% Bitcoin allocation with a ratio of 0.96.

The Sharpe ratio compares excess return with volatility. The portfolios’ maximum drawdowns, or largest peak-to-trough losses, were 20.3%, 20.6% and 20.9%, respectively. The higher historical ratios came with slightly deeper losses in the test and do not predict future results.