Strategy Shares Rose One Year After 10 of 19 Past Golden Crosses

Strategy Inc. (MSTR) shares neared another golden cross as their moving averages converged, but only 10 of 19 earlier signals were followed by gains a year later.

A golden cross occurs when the 50-day moving average rises above the 200-day average. Strategy’s 50-day average was approaching its 200-day average. The potential crossover had not been confirmed.

Since 1999, Strategy shares have been higher 12 months after 10 of 19 golden crosses, a rate of 52.6%. The median 12-month return was 3.3%. Shares rose over the following three months in 11 cases. Two signals, in 2001 and 2007, were each followed by a 61% decline.

The two crosses since Strategy began buying Bitcoin (BTC) in 2020 had much larger gains before later reversals. After the Sept. 15, 2020, signal, MSTR climbed from about $15.57 to $127.29 by February 2021, a gain of 717%. It had fallen to $46.83 when a death cross — the 50-day average moving below the 200-day average — appeared in January 2022.

The next golden cross came March 2, 2023, with shares at $25.29. MSTR reached $473.83 in November 2024, up 1,774% from the crossover price. By the death cross in October 2025, it stood at $328.40. Those gains measure the highs reached after each signal; they are separate from the 12-month results across all 19 cases.

Strategy holds about $69.81 billion in Bitcoin, tying its shares closely to the cryptocurrency’s price moves. Bitcoin completed its own golden cross Sept. 8, before the potential new crossover in MSTR. BTC was near $82,000 by Oct. 19, up nearly 5% from the signal date, after rising from about $60,000 in July and touching $87,000 early in October.

A new golden cross for MSTR requires a closing reading with its 50-day average above its 200-day average.