J.P. Morgan Asset Management Forecasts 10% Annual Bitcoin Return

J.P. Morgan Asset Management's first long-term forecast for Bitcoin (BTC) projects a 10% compound annual return, above its estimates for U.S. stocks and gold over the next 10 to 15 years.

The firm's 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions project annual returns of 7.5% for U.S. large-cap stocks, 8.2% for U.S. real estate investment trusts and 5.5% for gold over the same horizon. Bitcoin's compound estimate is 2.5 percentage points above the stock forecast and 4.5 points above gold.

The outlook also gives Bitcoin a 20.9% arithmetic annual return, a separate measure from its compounded estimate, and 55% annualized volatility. Those figures describe long-term assumptions rather than a target price for Bitcoin on a particular date.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the investment arm of JPMorgan Chase.