Copper Gains 15.8% as Gold Futures Fall 4.11% in 2026

Copper rose 15.8% this year as gold futures fell 4.11%, putting the industrial metal in focus amid debate over AI-related demand and a proposed U.S. tariff on refined imports. As of Oct. 20, copper had gained more than 30% over the past 12 months, while gold futures were down 4.52% over the same period.

Copper is a key component in electronics, construction and transportation. The recent retreat in technology stocks has raised questions about AI spending and large data-center projects, but Ivanhoe Electric CEO Taylor Melvin argued that copper costs are unlikely to determine whether a major technology company builds a data center. He described the sector’s need as “almost an inelastic demand for copper.”

Melvin also identified national security and defense budgets as another source of demand. He said governments, regions and industries are increasingly focused on securing metals for security, economic growth and technology infrastructure, a shift he believes has supported copper prices.

The proposed U.S. tariff is another market concern. In 2025, the U.S. Department of Commerce recommended a 15% tariff on refined copper imports beginning Jan. 1, 2027. No final decision has been publicly announced, and the unresolved proposal remains a source of market uncertainty.

Tariff concerns have left a large share of global copper stored in the United States, with its availability to other markets uncertain. Chinese inventories are exceptionally low, and premiums there are rising.

The proposed tariff’s stated start date is Jan. 1, 2027; a final decision has not been publicly announced.