JPMorgan Projects Bitcoin’s 10-Year Base-Case Return at 10%

JPMorgan’s 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions assign Bitcoin (BTC) a 10% annualized return in the bank’s base case over the next decade, placing its projection above those for U.S. stocks, bonds and gold. The outlook was released Tuesday.

JPMorgan also outlined a 17% bull case and a negative 9.7% bear case. It projected annualized returns of 7.5% for U.S. large-cap stocks, 7.7% for small-cap stocks, 5.6% to 6.6% for U.S. bonds and 5.5% for gold.

The range reflects the bank’s caution about Bitcoin’s role in portfolios. JPMorgan flagged high volatility and unstable correlations with other assets, and does not consider BTC a reliable diversification tool. It characterizes Bitcoin as speculative and as a potential hedge against monetary easing.

The bank’s digital asset strategy team describes BTC as a high-beta risk asset linked to growth in global money supply, with occasional “digital gold” framing. Bitcoin lacks traditional cash flows, and adoption, regulation and liquidity could shape its performance.