Copper Supply Gap Could Reach 20 Million Metric Tons by 2050

Global copper demand is projected to outpace supply starting in 2028, with the gap potentially reaching 20 million metric tons by 2050 as electrified transport and power grids need more metal.

The 2050 shortfall would represent 44% of projected worldwide demand. Bridging it would require an estimated $332 billion in new mine investment.

Copper demand is projected to grow 61% from 2026 to 2050, reaching nearly 46 million tons. Demand from electrified transport is expected to rise 244% to 11.4 million tons over the same period. Those figures measure expected demand, which may exceed the amount producers can supply.

Electrified transport alone would account for roughly one-quarter of projected copper demand in 2050. Power grids and other uses would draw on the same supply base, adding to the need for mining capacity as transport demand grows.

Copper stands apart from the other nine materials in the long-term assessment. Aluminum, cobalt, graphite, lithium, manganese, nickel, platinum, palladium and steel are expected to have enough supply capacity through 2050 if producers continue developing mines and replacing depleted reserves. Copper is the only material in the group with a projected shortage.

The demand figures also show why transport is a major part of the challenge. Its projected 244% increase is much steeper than the 61% rise in overall copper demand. Producers would need to serve that growth while supplying the metal used in grids and other applications.

Earlier coverage of four copper miners exposed to tightening supply examined individual producers. The new projection puts a global figure on the longer-term gap between copper demand and available supply.

Mine development limits how quickly producers can respond. New mines take 17 years on average to begin operating, while declining ore quality and years of insufficient exploration spending make it harder to expand output. The projected deficit would begin well before a mine started today would typically enter production.