[Satoshi Index] Top Crypto Traders Swing From 94% Short to 80% Long on 24-Hour Ranking as 7-Day and 30-Day Groups Stay 83% Short

‘Satoshi Index’ is a daily series in which Satoshi Note™, a crypto portfolio tracker, analyzes the current positions of top traders using on-chain data. Data refreshes hourly; figures reflect the aggregation time stated in the article. [Editor's note]

As of 8:18 a.m. KST on Oct. 21 (23:18 UTC, Oct. 20), about 80% of the position value held by the top traders ranked on 24-hour performance was long. Longs totaled about $962 million against about $247 million in shorts. The figures combine the top 100 accounts by 24-hour performance on four exchanges, Hyperliquid, Lighter, dYdX and Pacifica, added up by asset.

That is the reverse of the previous edition. At 6:30 p.m. KST on Oct. 20, the 24-hour group held about $203 million long and $2.98 billion short, a short share of 94%. Over the 14 hours between the two counts, long value rose by about $760 million and short value fell by about $2.73 billion. On Hyperliquid, prices over the 24 hours to the aggregation time rose 1.3% for Bitcoin (BTC), 1.7% for Ethereum (ETH), 1.4% for Solana (SOL) and 1.5% for Hyperliquid (HYPE), while Zcash (ZEC) gained 9.1%, Worldcoin (WLD) 10.1% and Lighter (LIT) 9.4%.

The group ranked on 7-day performance holds about $632 million long and about $3.02 billion short, a short share of about 83%, down from 93% the previous evening. Short value fell by about $306 million while long value rose from $241 million to $632 million. The 30-day group holds about $680 million long and about $3.31 billion short, also 83% short, compared with 87% the previous evening.

Unrealized results differ by group. The 24-hour group is up about $21 million, while the 7-day group is down about $90 million, twice the previous evening's $41 million loss, and the 30-day group has moved from a $6 million gain to a $76 million loss. In the 7-day group, HYPE shorts carry about $46 million in losses and BTC shorts about $41 million.

Bitcoin (BTC) shows 154 traders long and 56 short on the 24-hour ranking, with about $292 million long against $79 million short, a long share of 79%. The previous evening it was 68 long and 154 short, 98% short by value, so the long side gained 86 accounts and the short side lost 98. On the 7-day ranking, 97 are long and 125 short, with about $200 million long and $873 million short, or 81% short. On the 30-day ranking, 102 are long and 117 short, with about $197 million long against $938 million short, or 83% short, and the 30-day headcount is unchanged from the previous evening.

Ethereum (ETH) follows the same shape. On the 24-hour ranking, 130 traders are long and 52 short, with about $155 million long against $45 million short, a long share of 77%, compared with 58 long and 148 short, 98% short, the previous evening. On the 7-day ranking, 53 are long and 123 short, with about $95 million long and $868 million short, or 90% short. On the 30-day ranking, 54 are long and 134 short, with about $148 million long and $926 million short, or 86% short. ETH shorts carry unrealized losses of about $24 million in each of the 7-day and 30-day groups.

The largest change from the previous evening in the 7-day group is in Zcash (ZEC). The 7-day group's ZEC count moved from 26 long and 89 short, a long headcount share of 23%, to 48 long and 49 short, or 50%, as 22 accounts joined the long side and 40 left the short side. By value the group is still 72% short at about $75 million long against $193 million short, but that compares with 98% short the previous evening. On the 24-hour ranking, 95 traders are long and 25 short, with about $136 million long against $8 million short, a long share of 94%, where the previous evening had 25 long and 88 short, 98% short. ZEC rose about 9.1% on Hyperliquid over the 24 hours to the aggregation time, to $1,258.

The 30-day group's ZEC position has not moved as far: 34 long and 67 short, with about $18 million long against $240 million short, still 93% short. Worldcoin (WLD) is 95% long in the 24-hour group at 41 long to 12 short, about $30 million against $1.6 million, up from a 31% long share the previous evening, while in the 7-day group WLD is split almost evenly by value at 23 long to 39 short, about $25 million against $26 million. Among the top 20 assets by value, only Cardano (ADA) leans short on the 24-hour ranking, and only Monero (XMR) leans long on the 7-day ranking.

A 24-hour group moving from 94% short to 80% long overnight is hard to read as a market call. Short-window rankings surface the traders who called that window's price direction, so on a day when the major assets rose, accounts that did well with longs fill the 24-hour ranking and the short accounts that led the previous evening drop out. The 7-day and 30-day groups remain 83% short for the same reason: accounts that did well in the declines of the past week and month are still on those rankings.

A few large positions can swing the value shares. Positions on other exchanges and spot holdings outside these four venues are not counted, so hedging cannot be ruled out. Current positions alone do not reveal any trader's full strategy or the market's next move.

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Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only, based on public on-chain data, and does not recommend buying or selling any digital asset or any trading direction. The current positions and past performance of top traders do not guarantee future returns. All investment decisions and their consequences rest with the investor.