Bitcoin’s 30-Day Implied Volatility Tops 14-Day Realized Reading

Bitcoin (BTC) options carried a higher annualized volatility reading on Oct. 20 than a measure of recent trading, though the two readings cover different periods ahead of the monthly options expiry.

Deribit’s DVOL index stood at 38.28% at 8 a.m. ET (12:00 UTC). A calculation using 14 days of Deribit perpetual futures daily closes put realized volatility at 20.2% annualized. The readings differ by about 18 percentage points.

DVOL measures the magnitude of price variation implied by options over a 30-day horizon. Realized volatility measures price changes that have already occurred. The difference between the readings compares a forward-looking index with a backward-looking calculation; it is not an observed increase in volatility.

The choice of price series also affects the comparison. A separate two-week Bitcoin measure through Oct. 19 registered 25.5% annualized realized volatility. It used different prices and ended on a different date from the Deribit futures calculation, so the two realized readings are not interchangeable.

DVOL gives no indication of whether Bitcoin will rise or fall and does not establish a guaranteed trading range. Its 30-day horizon extends beyond the next monthly options expiry. Those Deribit contracts expire Oct. 30 at 4 a.m. ET (08:00 UTC).