Weekly Russian Crude Shipments Fall to Lowest Since March

Russia’s seaborne crude exports fell to their lowest weekly rate since March after a pause at a Baltic port, reducing shipment volumes and the estimated value of cargoes moving into global markets.

In the week ended Oct. 18, 31 tankers loaded 21.91 million barrels, down from a revised 24.63 million barrels aboard 34 vessels the previous week. Exports averaged 3.13 million barrels per day, a decline of 390,000 barrels per day.

The estimated gross value of the week’s cargoes fell by about $380 million to $2.33 billion, its lowest level in six weeks. The decline reflects fewer shipments and lower prices for Urals crude. The figure represents the estimated value of cargoes, rather than revenue received by the Russian government.

The interruption centered on Primorsk, a major Baltic export port. Satellite images showed empty berths, while vessel movements showed a gap of about three days in arrivals and departures. The cause was not established. Maintenance at the port or on its supplying pipeline was one possibility.

Tanker activity at Primorsk resumed late in the week, and shipments through the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk recovered. The Primorsk pause had therefore eased before the reporting week ended, even though it weighed on that week’s shipment total.

The four-week average provides a broader view when vessel departures shift between weeks. It slipped to 3.59 million barrels per day from 3.70 million. The weekly rate was the lowest since March; the four-week average was the lowest in about a month. The two measures capture different periods, so a sharp change in one week has a smaller effect on the longer average.

Russia’s crude production was estimated at 8.64 million barrels per day in September, the 10th consecutive monthly decline in the estimate. Refinery outages can leave more crude available for export, but lower production may limit the amount Russia can redirect to tankers.