Bitcoin Spot Selling Deepens as Futures Longs Pay More in Funding

Bitcoin (BTC) spot trading shifted further toward sellers in the week through Oct. 18, while funding payments by perpetual-futures longs climbed, putting cash-market activity and bullish futures exposure on different tracks.

Spot cumulative volume delta, which compares buyer-initiated and seller-initiated trading, moved from negative $67 million to negative $83.6 million. The deeper negative balance indicates a stronger selling bias in the spot trades covered by the measure. Trading volume rose 2.1% to $5.5 billion from $5.4 billion, but the additional activity did not reverse that balance.

Long-side funding payments on perpetual futures increased 49.4% to $1.6 million from $1.1 million. Traders holding bullish positions paid more in aggregate over the week, even as the spot trade balance became more negative.

Futures open interest edged down 0.3%, from $36.5 billion to $36.4 billion. Open interest measures outstanding contracts across the market and includes both sides of each contract; the $36.4 billion figure is not a measure of long positions alone.

The latest weekly reading shows a spot selling bias alongside slightly lower futures open interest.

Selling also persisted in perpetual futures, although their trade balance improved. Perpetual-futures cumulative volume delta moved from negative $891.1 million to negative $562.7 million but remained below its lower statistical band.

Options pricing shifted toward relative downside protection. Bitcoin’s 25-delta skew increased from 5.2% to 8.6%, indicating that puts became relatively richer than comparable calls on that measure. The skew remained below its upper statistical band.

The spread between implied and realized volatility moved from negative 3.8% to positive 2.1%, putting implied volatility above realized volatility. Options open interest rose 3.1% to $38.6 billion from $37.4 billion. That increase shows more outstanding options exposure without identifying whether the positions favored a rise or fall in Bitcoin’s price.

The figures show a more negative spot trade balance, higher payments by futures longs and a wider options skew. They do not identify a price at which leveraged positions would be liquidated. The Federal Open Market Committee’s next scheduled meeting is Tuesday and Wednesday, Oct. 27-28.