Citadel Securities Strategist Sees AI Stocks Outperforming After Midterms

Citadel Securities head of equity and equity derivatives strategy Scott Rubner sees AI stocks outperforming after the Nov. 3 U.S. midterms, with the vote affecting when some clients are willing to take risk.

In an interview published Oct. 20, Rubner described institutional accounts reducing exposure under rules linked to price moves or volatility. Separately, he said some clients would rather pay a higher price after the election than buy beforehand. He did not identify those clients as the institutions cutting exposure or say they had committed to buy after the vote.

“AI can outperform again,” Rubner said. His view concerns trading after the election; the client preference he described does not establish whether that buying will take place.

Retail clients were already net buyers earlier in October. In the week ended Oct. 11, they bought $9.1 billion more U.S. equities than they sold on Citadel Securities’ platform, the strongest weekly net buying in 15 weeks. That included $2.6 billion in semiconductor shares and $2.4 billion in AI infrastructure shares. The figures cover the week ended Oct. 11, before the interview was published.

Earlier in October, Rubner had pointed to reduced leverage and positioning after September as possible support for equities. He also identified earnings and the reopening of corporate share-repurchase windows as factors to watch. His latest comments add the election to that calendar.

As of Oct. 12, consensus expectations called for about 27% growth in third-quarter S&P 500 earnings per share from a year earlier. Companies representing about 47% of the index’s weight were scheduled to report during the five trading sessions from Oct. 28 through Nov. 3.

Corporate repurchase windows were also expected to reopen across more of the index. An estimated 24% of S&P 500 index weight was outside company repurchase blackout windows as of Oct. 12. That share was projected to reach about 75% by Election Day and 85% by Nov. 9. Those percentages measure open windows, not completed purchases.

The scheduled earnings reports begin Oct. 28, followed by the Nov. 3 vote. Institutional trading after the election will provide the test of Rubner’s view.