Aptos Would Need 91 Million Daily Transactions to Match Issuance

Aptos (APT) would need about 91 million transactions a day for fee burns to match staking issuance, roughly 10 times the prevailing pace and a threshold that underscores why supply growth remains positive.

March governance changes slowed that growth by lowering the staking reward rate from 5.19% to 2.6%, increasing gas costs tenfold and approving a 2.1 billion APT supply cap. The cap vote took effect March 9, the staking-rate cut March 16 and the gas-cost increase March 19. Together, the changes lowered estimated annual net supply growth from about 5% to 1.5%, a reduction of roughly 70%.

That 70% comparison measures net supply growth after accounting for tokens removed through burns. Gross staking issuance, or newly created APT paid as rewards, was estimated to drop from roughly 43 million to 20 million APT per year. The distinction matters: reduced issuance slows the addition of new tokens, while fee burns remove tokens from supply.

Figures dated Oct. 21 show the gap remains. Monthly staking emissions were about 1.5 million APT, while burns totaled 174,210 APT over the preceding 30 days. Estimated net new supply was about 1.4 million APT per month; the emissions figure is rounded and the burn total covers the preceding 30 days.

Daily transaction activity increased from about 4.5 million in February to roughly 9 million in September. Much of that activity was concentrated on Decibel, an onchain derivatives platform. Transaction volume matters because Aptos burns APT used for network gas fees, so both the count and mix of transactions affect how quickly tokens are removed.

At the measured transaction sizes and mix, and with roughly current staking levels, fee burns would match staking issuance at about 91 million transactions daily. That would bring net supply growth to zero, not make APT deflationary. Supply would contract only if burns exceeded new issuance. Changes in transaction size, activity mix or the amount staked would shift the break-even level, making 91 million a scenario rather than a forecast.

The lower annual net supply-growth estimate reflects the March measures, while this transaction threshold shows the activity needed to offset issuance under the modeled conditions. At the latest supply figures, staking emissions still exceed fee burns, leaving the threshold far above observed daily activity.