Glassnode Weights Bitcoin Cost Bases to Map Nearby Support and Resistance

Glassnode’s Oct. 20 update outlines a way to assess where Bitcoin holders’ acquisition prices sit around the market, separating weighted supply below spot from supply above it as potential support and resistance.

The proximity focus can change the reading even when the price remains near earlier levels: a cost basis farther from spot receives less weight than one nearby. The measure describes where supply last moved; it does not establish how holders will act if Bitcoin reaches those prices.

The method divides the cost-basis distribution into 100 quantiles. It weights each quantile by its distance from spot, with that distance scaled by the 30-day rolling standard deviation of price. The Proximity Support Index measures the weighted share below spot, while the Proximity Resistance Index measures the share above it. Together, the two shares total 100%.

A support reading above 50% means more weighted supply sits below the current price than above it. These labels describe the position of holder cost bases around spot; they do not guarantee that a price level will hold or limit a move.

A historical example shows how the index can shift while Bitcoin trades in a similar range. On Aug. 24, 2023, Bitcoin was about $26,100 and the seven-day exponential moving average of the support index was 35.3%. On Oct. 12, 2023, Bitcoin was about $26,700, while that average had climbed to 52.8%.

The framework also calculates a nearby realized price using the proximity weighting. It applies that reference price to versions of MVRV and NUPL, measures tied to market valuation and unrealized profit or loss. A separate metric, Proximity Premium, compares the difference between spot and the nearby realized price with recent volatility.

Historical tests found a statistically significant relationship between Proximity Premium and subsequent returns for both Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) at the 1% level. The tests covered three-, seven- and 30-day return horizons, using daily observations from Jan. 1, 2017, through Oct. 31, 2025. That result describes a historical relationship and does not guarantee future outcomes.

The method was first published in a Feb. 13, 2026, paper by Vicky Yang, co-founder of Fountainhead Digital. Yang summarized the measure’s limit: “proximity metrics describe positioning, not intent.”