J.P. Morgan Asset Management Gives Bitcoin Its First Long-Term Return Forecast

J.P. Morgan Asset Management included Bitcoin (BTC) in its long-term market assumptions for the first time, forecasting a 10% annual return.

The estimate covers the next 10 years in the firm’s 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions. It exceeds the firm’s projected annual returns of 7.5% for U.S. large-cap stocks and 5.5% for gold. Bitcoin’s forecast also carries an annualized volatility estimate of 55%.

J.P. Morgan also gives Bitcoin a 20.9% arithmetic average annual return. That measure differs from the 10% annual return forecast. The figures are long-term assumptions, not a target price for Bitcoin on a particular date.

The annual assumptions provide estimates of returns, risk and correlations. This edition assigns Bitcoin a long-term return estimate for the first time.