French Bond Premium Closes Above 1.5 Percentage Points for First Time Since 2012

Sonal Desai, global chief investment officer at Franklin Templeton Fixed Income, warned Oct. 21 that sustained selling of French government bonds could spread across the eurozone and test its financial safeguards.

The yield premium on French 10-year bonds over comparable German debt closed above 1.5 percentage points on Oct. 20. It was the first close above that level since January 2012. The premium represents the extra yield investors demand to hold French bonds instead of German bonds.

France had €3.596 trillion in government debt at the end of the second quarter of 2026, equal to 119.1% of gross domestic product. Its government deficit was 5.1% of GDP in 2025. Desai warned that the debt burden would complicate a rescue if bond-market stress intensified.

The ECB introduced the Transmission Protection Instrument in 2022 to permit conditional bond purchases when market turmoil seriously threatens the transmission of monetary policy. The tool permits bond purchases, but a widening French-German yield gap does not activate it automatically.

Activation requires a decision by the ECB Governing Council after it assesses market conditions and eligibility, including fiscal sustainability. No eurozone debt crisis was reported as having begun.