10-Year Treasury Yield Falls to 5.10% as September Inflation Rises

U.S. Treasury yields were lower on Oct. 15 than a day earlier as September consumer and producer prices rose, but the daily figures do not establish what drove the change.

The 10-year Treasury’s daily par yield was 5.10% on Oct. 15, compared with 5.19% on Oct. 14. The two-year yield also moved lower, to 4.77% from 4.82%. The gap between the 10-year and two-year yields was 33 basis points on Oct. 15, compared with 51 basis points on Oct. 7. That spread is the difference between the two yields; its narrowing describes a flatter yield curve.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.6% in September, with prices up 3.7% over 12 months. Gasoline prices climbed 9.1%, accounting for more than half of the monthly increase. Core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.3% for the month and 2.6% over the year.

Final-demand producer prices increased 1.3% in September and 6.3% over 12 months. Energy prices accounted for more than 80% of the increase in final-demand goods prices, while prices for final-demand services rose 0.8%. The figures show that both consumer and producer prices advanced, with energy playing a large role in parts of the increases.

Employment figures offered a mixed signal. Payroll employment grew by 29,000 in September, while revisions reduced July and August’s combined gains by 60,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1% in August, alongside the slower payroll growth.

The Federal Reserve raised its target range by 25 basis points in September, to 3.75% to 4%. The median projected federal funds rate among Fed participants was 4.1% at the end of 2026 and 3.2% over the longer run; those projections do not commit the Fed to future action. The FOMC is scheduled to meet Oct. 27–28.