Bitcoin rebound is a bear-market bounce as McGlone maintains $10,000 downside view

Bitcoin’s recovery has the hallmarks of a bear-market bounce, with weak returns relative to stocks and pressure from Federal Reserve tightening leaving further downside risk, according to Mike McGlone.

In an October 22 interview with Bitcoin Magazine, the Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist said he had maintained a firmly bearish view since Bitcoin exceeded $100,000 in the first quarter of 2025. He reiterated that the price could lose a zero from that level, implying $10,000, saying he had no reason to withdraw that assessment.

McGlone pointed to a mismatch between returns and risk. By his comparison, Bitcoin was down 7% for the year while the S&P 500 was up 13%. Over two years, Bitcoin had gained 21%, against 47% for the index. He argued that an asset with high stock-market correlation and substantially greater volatility offered limited portfolio appeal if its returns merely matched those of equities.

The recent recovery had not changed his assessment. McGlone said Bitcoin had rebounded from significant support around $66,000 and reached roughly $86,000–$87,000 before retreating to about $81,000 at the time of the interview. Its 50-week moving average, around $76,000, was still heading sharply lower, he said.

McGlone identified potential Fed tightening as a source of pressure across risk assets, saying futures markets were pricing in three rate increases the following year. His warning to “don’t fight the Fed” applied particularly to assets such as Bitcoin and copper, which he described as highly sensitive to stock-market moves.

He also said falling equities could tighten financial conditions enough to reduce the need for further Fed increases. In his assessment, the bond market had already delivered substantial tightening, leaving stock-market declines as a potential force that could change the expected policy path.

McGlone raised the possibility that Bitcoin’s weakness was an early signal for other markets. He said Bitcoin, gold, silver and several other assets had reached highs before retreating during the year. Further stock-market volatility into year-end could spread selling pressure across those markets, he said.