Robinhood's Event Contracts Outpace Stock and Crypto Trading Revenue

Trading platforms may capture value from an expanding appetite for speculation as AI-related job anxiety meets cheaper ways to create crypto assets and markets spanning stocks, commodities and event contracts.

The case is that venues can earn fees as users shift among asset classes, without needing to predict which one will draw the most interest. Their prospects depend on trading activity, user reach and the ability to offer new markets. Robinhood and Hyperliquid illustrate the opportunity, while their revenue figures also show how sensitive it can be to market cycles.

Robinhood generated $156 million in event-contract revenue in the second quarter of 2026, more than its revenue from stock or crypto trading. The company had 28.4 million funded accounts; about 2 million users had participated in event contracts. The two figures measure different things.

Event contracts face legal disputes involving state gambling laws and federal commodities oversight. World Cup activity may also have boosted Robinhood's second-quarter event-contract revenue, so the figure may not reflect a lasting pace of demand.

AI Anxiety Meets Economic Strain

The argument for rising speculation starts with the investment boom around artificial intelligence and concerns about its effect on workers. Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta spent about $416 billion on capital projects in 2025, roughly two-thirds more than in 2024. Their combined spending is estimated at $720 billion to $745 billion in 2026.

U.S. data centers used about 4.4% of the country's electricity in 2023, a share that could approach 12% by 2030. At the same time, 73% of U.S. adults under 30 in a 2026 survey said AI would reduce job opportunities. That combination—large investment in a new technology and concern over who will benefit from it—forms part of the case for a growing appetite for high-risk bets.

Housing costs add another measure of economic pressure. For households headed by someone under 40, median home value rose from about 2.5 times median household income during 1975-2000 to 3.5 times in 2024. First-time buyers made up 21% of home purchases, and their median age was 40.

Crypto Lowers the Cost of Speculation

Crypto tools make it cheaper to create assets and markets. Issuing a meme coin through Pump.fun costs less than $2. More than 19 million tokens launched on the platform since January 2024, and it saw about 33,000 new token launches a day in late September 2026. About 1% passed its initial issuance curve; most lost trading activity on launch day.

The trading activity also reaches beyond digital assets. Monthly volume in perpetual contracts tied to stocks, commodities and foreign exchange rose from about $52 billion in January 2026 to $268 billion in June. These contracts bring markets for traditional assets onto crypto venues.

Hyperliquid recorded about $3 trillion in trading volume and $972 million in fees in 2025, with roughly $818 million counted as protocol revenue. Its average monthly fees fell from about $109 million in the second half of 2025 to about $71 million in 2026 so far. The figures point to the revenue that active trading can produce, and the pullback as activity cools.

A Business Tied to Market Activity

Two paths remain possible. Speculation could reach more assets and events, with AI agents eventually placing trades across platforms. Or a boom could collapse, wiping out capital while some trading infrastructure survives. Either outcome leaves trading venues exposed to a central uncertainty: how much activity users sustain when market conditions change.