TSMC’s 2030 Valuation Scenario Puts ADR at $1,219 on EPS Growth

A valuation scenario for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) puts its New York-listed American depositary receipt (ADR), traded as TSM, at $1,219 in 2030, based on earnings growth assumptions and a 20-times earnings multiple.

The scenario starts with TSMC’s actual 2025 EPS of $10.65 per ADR and projected 2028 EPS of $29.82. Those figures imply a compound annual growth rate of about 40% over the three-year span. That rate describes growth between the two points, not an assumption that earnings rise 40% in each individual year.

The scenario then assumes earnings grow 43% annually in 2029 and 2030, reaching an estimated $60.98 per ADR in 2030. Applying a 20-times price-to-earnings multiple to that figure produces a valuation of about $1,219. The result depends on both the earnings assumptions and the multiple used.

TSMC reported third-quarter revenue of $46.72 billion, up 41.2% from a year earlier. Earnings reached a record $4.60 per ADR. Gross margin was 66.4%, while net margin rose to 51.1% from 45.7% a year earlier.

For the fourth quarter, TSMC forecast revenue of $52.3 billion to $54.3 billion and an operating margin of 56.5% to 58.5%. The company also raised its 2026 revenue-growth outlook in U.S. dollar terms to around 44%, from slightly above 40%.

Seven-nanometer-and-below technologies made up 79% of third-quarter wafer revenue. The breakdown included 7-nanometer at 10%, 5-nanometer at 28%, 3-nanometer at 33% and 2-nanometer at 8%.

The quarterly results and guidance provide operating context for the scenario, while the $1,219 figure is a model-based 2030 valuation. TSMC’s fourth-quarter forecast and 2026 growth outlook do not set a company target for that valuation.